Based purely on appreciation, which would you guess does better: a home in a top-flight school district, or one in a pretty good one?

The answer: There's no clear answer.

The evidence: Check out this list of the Santa Clara County school districts that saw the most price appreciation between 1998 and 2006 (so far), along with their district API scores. The data comes from Richard Calhoun of Creekside Realty.

(Elementary school district API scores are calculated differently than unified districts and tend to be higher, so the scores should not be directly compared. Scores above are 2005 growth scores for the school district as a whole, and differ from individual school scores. Past appreciation should not be interpreted as a predictor of future value.)

PRICE GROWTH, 1998 - 2006
%UP .... API .... DISTRICT
188% ...732 .... Mt Pleasant Elem.
165% ...827 .... Evergreen Elem.
160% ...780 .... Franklin McKinley Elem.
160% ...781 .... Milpitas Unif.
157% ...770 .... Oak Grove Elem.
135% ...903 .... Palo Alto Unif.
129% ...755 .... Morgan Hill Unif.
120% ...759 .... Campbell Elem.
119% ...741 .... Santa Clara Unif.
112% ...941 .... Saratoga Union

a chart of those districts' growth just from 2001-2006 is similarly perplexing:

PRICE GROWTH, 2001 - 2006
%UP .... API .... DISTRICT
59% .... 732 .... Mt Pleasant Elem.
55% .... 781 .... Milpitas Unif.
51% .... 780 .... Franklin McKinley Elem.
51% .... 770 .... Oak Grove Elem.
44% .... 755 .... Morgan Hill Unif.
40% .... 903 .... Palo Alto Unif.
40% .... 741 .... Santa Clara Unif.
39% .... 759 .... Campbell Elem.
35% .... 827 .... Evergreen Elem.
18% .... 941 .... Saratoga Union

Now granted, people who buy homes in great school districts aren't necessarily doing it because of the equity they'll gain; they presumably want their kids to go to those schools and get a great education. And these numbers don't speak for themselves, and are open to interpretation.

But it's pretty darn interesting.